Jeremiah Rogers

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Long Bets

I like to make long term bets to test my ability to predict the future. There are enough of these bets going that I’ll start tracking them here.

#Bets I’ve won: 1. I bet Mike Zhu $100 that the iPad would sell more than 10 Million units in it’s first year. We made the bet before Apple announced anything, we didn’t know the name of the product, but I had confidence it would sell well. I think the actual sales were about 15 million. Mike Zhu hasn’t paid up yet, but to be fair he lives in China and got banned from PayPal. 1. I bet Jason Applebaum $100 that Apple will release a smaller iPad in 2012. I won this when the iPad Mini was released. 1. 2012 - I bet Alex Bain $100 that Obama will win the 2012 presidential election. I paid $57 to win $100. 1. 2012 - I bet Matt Bruce that Obama would win the 2012 election. Matt paid me $20, if Romney had won I would owe him $100.

#Bets I’ve lost 1. 2013 I bet Dario Dario Mutabdzija about the stock price of AAPL. I said “I think Apple will be back above $600 within three months (by April 15, 2013) and above $1000 within two years (by Jan 15, 2015).” I lost both of my statements. Dario said “It will never go above 700 that is easy to divine” and “I would be very surprised to see Apple go above 615.” Dario lost both of his statements, making us even on final payouts. 2. 2013 - I bet Steve DeLucia $100 that in 2013 there will be fewer than 2.5 Android devices sold for every iPhone sold. I paid Steve $100 in early 2014.

Future bets

  1. 2019 - I bet my brother Brishen Rogers $500 that the S&P 500 will outperform Lehman Aggregate Bond Index between May 2009 and May 2019.
  2. 2023 - I bet Kyle Kuklinski $1,000 that BitCoin will trade for >= $1,000/USD for at least one week between April 2, 2013 and April 2, 2023 (10 years). If BitCoin never trades > $1,000 for a straight week I owe Kyle $1,000. If it does he owes me $1,000. Although the BTC market has never closed we agree that the one week window stops if the market is closed.
  3. 2032 - I bet Chad Heaton $100 that the sea level in New York City will rise by less than or equal to 2 inches per decade between 2012 and 2032. Chad wins $100 if sea levels rise 5 or more inches per decade.